Aurora Info

Solar maximum will arrive sooner and last longer than previously expected, say scientists

New Aurora Information from 2022 to 2026

The sun will reach the peak of its current activity cycle in 2024, one year earlier than previous estimates, according to experts at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

The revised prediction now places Solar Cycle 25’s peak of activity known as “solar maximum” between January and October 2024 according to a NOAA statement. The peak will be earlier, stronger and last longer than estimates made in 2019.

The solar cycle describes an approximately 11-year period of solar activity driven by the sun’s magnetic field and indicated by the frequency and intensity of visible sunspots on the surface.

Predictions on when solar maximum will occur are based on long-term historical records of sunspot numbers, advanced statistics and models of the solar dynamo — the flow of hot, ionized gases within the sun that generate our star’s magnetic field which in turn drives the solar cycle.

“We expect that our new experimental forecast will be much more accurate than the 2019 panel prediction and, unlike previous solar cycle predictions, it will be continuously updated on a monthly basis as new sunspot observations become available,” solar scientist Mark Miesch said in the NOAA statement. “It’s a pretty significant change.”

 

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center’s revised Solar Cycle 25 prediction.  (Image credit: NOAA)

The revised prediction is good news for eclipse chasers as the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024 will occur near the solar maximum. During totality, when the moon completely obscures the sun’s disk, the sun’s outer atmosphere (known as the corona) is visible to observers. During heightened solar activity, the corona is very active and eagle-eyed observers may be able to see solar prominences — gigantic loops of plasma extending outward from the sun — appear as bright pink spots at the sun’s edges.

Accurate predictions of solar activity are crucial as geomagnetic storms triggered by plasma outbursts known as coronal mass ejections can affect electrical grids, GPS signals, drag satellites out of orbit and pose a radiation risk to airline workers and astronauts. Advanced warning of space weather events can help industries implement safeguarding procedures to reduce the risk to both their equipment and workers.

“We can’t ignore space weather, but we can take appropriate measures to protect ourselves,” NASA says.

We are of course not without our own natural protection — Earth’s magnetic field.

When energetic particles and magnetic fields are released from the sun during events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, Earth can sometimes find itself within the line of fire.

When this happens, our protective magnetic “bubble” known as the magnetosphere repels harmful energy away from Earth and traps it in zones called the Van Allen radiation belts. These donut-shaped belts of radiation can swell when the sun’s activity increases.

But our protective shield is not invincible.

During particularly strong space weather events — which are more common during solar maximum — Earth’s magnetic field is disturbed and geomagnetic storms can penetrate the magnetosphere and lead to widespread radio and power blackouts as well as endangering astronauts and Earth-orbiting satellites. One notable example occurred in 1989 when a CME accompanied a solar flareand plunged the entire province of Quebec, Canada into an electrical blackout that lasted around 12 hours according to NASA.

However, not all magnetosphere interferences are destructive, and one disturbance in particular gives rise to a remarkable show — auroras. The phenomenon is known as the northern lights (aurora borealis) in the Northern Hemisphere and the southern lights (aurora australis) in the Southern Hemisphere and is triggered by energetic particles being redirected toward Earth’s poles and colliding with atoms of oxygen and nitrogen in Earth’s atmosphere.

Related: Aurora colors: What causes them and why do they vary?

Solar activity can have a large impact on our technological world which is why advanced notice and accurate predictions are key to mitigating potential damage and of course, give aurora chasers the information they need to capture incredible shows!

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So far we are well under way this season and aurora viewings have been very very good indeed , due to frequent weaknesses in the suns magnetic field ,which in turn caused many coronal holes to develop on the surface of the sun that release charged particles into space and were carried towards earth in a strong solar winds , resulting in some fantastic aurora displays , some reaching G1 & G2 storms , even though we are still in the solar min this is us just coming out of the solar minimum but we are heading for the solar maximum in the years ahead 2023-2026.
Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots, which typically range from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle.”

Three recent solar cycles

Solar minimum is the period of least solar activity in the 11 year solar cycle of the sun. During this time, sunspot and solar flare activity diminishes, and often does not occur for days at a time. The date of the minimum is described by a smoothed average over 12 months of sunspot activity, so identifying the date of the solar minimum usually can only happen 6 months after the minimum takes place. Solar minima are not generally correlated with changes in climate but recent studies have shown a correlation with regional weather patterns.

Solar minimum is contrasted with the solar maximum, where there may be hundreds of sunspots

Solar maximum

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February 1906. NASA

Solar maximum or solar max is a regular period of greatest Sun activity during the 11-year solar cycle. During solar maximum, large numbers of sunspots appear, and the solar irradiance output grows by about 0.07%.[1] The increased energy output of solar maxima can impact Earth’s global climate, and recent studies have shown some correlation with regional weather patterns.[citation needed]

At solar maximum, the Sun’s magnetic field lines are the most distorted due to the magnetic field on the solar equator rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles.[citation needed] On average, the solar cycle takes about 11 years to go from one solar maximum to the next, with duration observed varying from 9 to 14 years.

Three recent solar cycles

Large solar flares often occur during a maximum. For example, the solar storm of 1859 struck the Earth with such intensity that the northern lights were visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.[2]

See you soon.

What causes the aurora?
The typical aurora is caused by collisions between fast-moving electrons from space combined with the oxygen and nitrogen in earth’s upper atmosphere. The electrons which come from the earth’s magnetosphere, the region of space controlled by earth’s magnetic field, transfer their energy to the oxygen and nitrogen atoms and molecules, making them “excited”.
As the gases return to their normal state, they emit photons, small bursts of energy in the form of light.
When a large number of electrons come from the magnetosphere to bombard the atmosphere, the oxygen and nitrogen can emit enough light for the eye to detect, giving us the beautiful aurora displays, also named the northern lights.
This ghostly light originates at altitudes of 100 to more than 400 km (60 to more than 250 miles) above us.

So far we are well under way this season and aurora viewings have been very very good indeed , due to frequent weaknesses in the suns magnetic field ,which in turn caused many coronal holes to develop on the surface of the sun that release charged particles into space and were carried towards earth in a strong solar winds , resulting in some fantastic aurora displays , some reaching G1 & G2 storms , even though this is the solar minimum.

 

 

Three recent solar cycles

Solar minimum is the period of least solar activity in the 11 year solar cycle of the sun. During this time, sunspot and solar flare activity diminishes, and often does not occur for days at a time. The date of the minimum is described by a smoothed average over 12 months of sunspot activity, so identifying the date of the solar minimum usually can only happen 6 months after the minimum takes place. Solar minima are not generally correlated with changes in climate but recent studies have shown a correlation with regional weather patterns.

Solar minimum is contrasted with the solar maximum, where there may be hundreds of sunspots

Solar maximum

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been flat over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February 1906. NASA

Solar maximum or solar max is a regular period of greatest Sun activity during the 11-year solar cycle. During solar maximum, large numbers of sunspots appear, and the solar irradiance output grows by about 0.07%.[1] The increased energy output of solar maxima can impact Earth’s global climate, and recent studies have shown some correlation with regional weather patterns.[citation needed]

At solar maximum, the Sun’s magnetic field lines are the most distorted due to the magnetic field on the solar equator rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles.[citation needed] On average, the solar cycle takes about 11 years to go from one solar maximum to the next, with duration observed varying from 9 to 14 years.

Three recent solar cycles

Large solar flares often occur during a maximum. For example, the solar storm of 1859 struck the Earth with such intensity that the northern lights were visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.[2]

See you soon.

What causes the aurora?
The typical aurora is caused by collisions between fast-moving electrons from space combined with the oxygen and nitrogen in earth’s upper atmosphere. The electrons which come from the earth’s magnetosphere, the region of space controlled by earth’s magnetic field, transfer their energy to the oxygen and nitrogen atoms and molecules, making them “excited”.
As the gases return to their normal state, they emit photons, small bursts of energy in the form of light.
When a large number of electrons come from the magnetosphere to bombard the atmosphere, the oxygen and nitrogen can emit enough light for the eye to detect, giving us the beautiful aurora displays, also named the northern lights.
This ghostly light originates at altitudes of 100 to more than 400 km (60 to more than 250 miles) above us.

What causes the aurora?
The typical aurora is caused by collisions between fast-moving electrons from space combined with the oxygen and nitrogen in earth’s upper atmosphere.
The electrons, which come from the earth’s magnetosphere, the region of space controlled by earth’s magnetic field,  transfer their energy to the oxygen and nitrogen atoms and molecules, making them “excited”.
As the gases return to their normal state, they emit photons, small bursts of energy in the form of light.
When a large number of electrons come from the magnetosphere to bombard the atmosphere, the oxygen and nitrogen can emit enough light for the eye to detect, giving us the beautiful auroral displays we call the northern lights.
This ghostly light originates at altitudes of 100 to more than 400 km (60 to more than 250 miles) above us .

 

 The Relationship between the Kp and the Aurora.
From thousands of observations, scientists have determined geographic sub-points for the southern edges of auroral displays.
The curves represent four values of the planetary index (Kp).
As this index increases, the aurora’s southern edge moves southward. 
In this article we briefly explain some of the ideas behind the association of the aurora with geomagnetic activity and a bit about how the ‘K-index’ or ‘K-factor’ works.
The aurora is understood to be caused by the interaction of high energy particles (usually electrons) with neutral atoms in the earth’s upper atmosphere.
These high energy particles can ‘excite’ (by collisions) valence electrons that are bound to the neutral atom.
The ‘excited’ electron can then ‘de-excite’ and return back to its initial, lower energy state, but in the process it releases a photon (a light particle).
The combined effect of many photons being released from many atoms results in the aurora display that you see.
The details of how high energy particles are generated during geomagnetic storms constitute an entire discipline of space science in its own right.
The basic idea, however, is that the Earth’s magnetic field (let us say the ‘geomagnetic field’) is responding to a outwardly propagating disturbance from the Sun.
As the geomagnetic field adjusts to this disturbance, various components of the earth’s field change form, releasing magnetic energy and thereby accelerating charged particles to high energies.
These particles, being charged, are forced to stream along the geomagnetic field lines.
Some end up in the upper part of the earth’s neutral atmosphere and the auroral mechanism begins.
The disturbance of the geomagnetic field may also be measured by an instrument called a magnetometer.
From the operations centre we receive magnetometer data from dozens of observatories in one minute intervals.
The data is received at or near to ‘real-time’ and allows us to keep track of the current state of the geomagnetic conditions.
In order to reduce the amount of data that our customers have to deal with we convert the magnetometer data into three-hourly indices which give a quantitative, but less detailed measure of the level of geomagnetic activity.
The K-index scale has a range from 0 to 9 and is directly related to the maximum amount of fluctuation (relative to a quiet day) in the geomagnetic field over a three-hour interval.
The K-index is therefore updated every three hours and the information is made available to our customers as soon as possible.
The K-index is also necessarily tied to a specific geomagnetic observatory.
For locations where there are no observatories, one can only estimate what the local K-index would be by looking at data from the nearest observatory, but this would be subject to some errors from time to time because geomagnetic activity is not always spatially homogenous.
Another item of interest is that the location of the aurora usually changes geomagnetic latitude as the intensity of the geomagnetic storm changes.
The location of the aurora often takes on an ‘oval-like’ shape and is appropriately called the auroral oval.
A useful map of the approximate location of the auroral oval as a function of the Kp-index was published in the June 1968 copy Sky & Telescope .
The Kp index is derived through by an algorithm that essentially averages the K-indices from several stations.
Note that as a storm becomes more intense, the edge of the auroral boundary typically moves to lower latitudes.
You will notice that Tromsø is allocated right below the Kp Index 0-1 meaning that in clear skies with zero activity we can still see a very faint aurora with the naked eye.
Therefore making Tromsø and surrounding islands, one of the best places on earth to view the auroral display.
Please look at www.spaceweather.com  for finer details, Hope to see you soon.
Marianne Bergli.

 

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